高考网上动态志愿填报预测程序设计

论文总字数：53642字

目 录

1引言………………………………………………………………………5

2动态愿志高考网上填报发展情况………………………………………5

3高考动态志愿填报预测的实证分析……………………………………6

3.1预测方法的选择（最佳院校）.........................................6

3.2取样证明，选择最优预测方法.........................................6

3.3 专业选择预测（最佳专业）...........................................12

4实施方法………………………………………………………………14

4.1院校预测..........................................................14

4.1.1保底院校预测..................................................14

4.1.2冲分院校预测..................................................14

4.1.3专业预测......................................................14

4.2Ｃ程序软件功能.....................................................15

5检验可行性　…………………………………………………………25

5.1随机抽取位次进行最佳院校检测…………………………………………………25

5.2以已经抽取好的位次数据进行最佳专业预测……………………………………27

6结论………………………………………………………………28

致谢…………………………………………………………………29

参考文献……………………………………………………………30

附录…………………………………………………………………30

高考网上动态志愿填报预测程序设计

　　　　　　　　　　　　　杜昕宇

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Abstract: This paper is devoted to reduce Inner Mongolia online dynamic support the workload of the reporting system candidates, at present college entrance examination online dynamic support reporting system only in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region implemented, compared to static voluntary reporting system malpractice has a few, while allowing a large number of candidates to sign up to the pressure of the server is too large, registration time is short, changing fast, every moment will be changed, if not well in advance to enter oneself for an examination the homework, is likely to lead to in the last few minutes let out of the top ranked, lead to failed. I make this paper to solve the above problems, by reference to the entrance of Inner Mongolia voluntary reporting "the book several prediction method, and then through the analysis of these methods, based on, in each method will last year data instead of ranking in recent years the average value, select the most accurate prediction method, prediction method to the selected the most accurate method as, with C language as the programming method of write a program, the main function of this program is the examinee's score and ranking to predict candidates can successful candidates which colleges and universities. In order to reduce the workload of candidates to access the data, reduce the error caused by artificial prediction. After the verification procedure is run, it is assumed that the year is assumed in 2015, and the results of the program are compared with the actual results in the year to prove the practicability and accuracy of the program. College entrance examination online dynamic voluntary reporting system is a new registration system, and past static registration system is the biggest difference is that it can be real-time let candidates know their ranked colleges and professional rankings, so in this system can greatly enhance the prediction system of fault tolerance rate. So in this system environment, the practicality of the prediction system will be greatly improved.

Keywords: college entrance examination online dynamic voluntary reporting forecast: probability and statistics, C program, colleges and universities forecast, professional prediction.

１引言

随着网络的普及，高考报名也从原来的纸质报名演变为现在的网上静态报名，而最具时代化的无疑是内蒙古自治区实行的网上动态报名系统。从名字就可以知道这个报名系统是动态的，也就是考生可以实时在自己所选院校，专业看到自己每时每刻的院校排名以及专业排名，此系统将考生按照分数分为若干个分数段进行报名，每个分数段的考生都有2个小时的报名时间，举个例子，假如考生ａ分数为654所分到的分数段为671-650，报考时间为8:00-10:00，那么在10:00时考生ａ在其所报院校招生范围内，或在其专业招生范围内（具体情况要看所报院校招生标准：专业清或分数清）则报名成功，反之则落榜.考生ｂ分数为６４８被分到649-595分数段，报考时间为10:00-12:00，考生ｂ可选院校则为上一批考生报考成功后剩余的院校，以此类推.

内蒙古自治区从2008年开始实行这种报名方式，自2012年开始将这种报名方式替换了先前的静态报名系统，自全面实行动态报名系统后内蒙古考生大学新生报道率由原来的97％提高到了99％，大大降低了高考报名的落榜率。但是不落榜并不代表考生报名到了自己心仪的学校，合适的学校，现代社会普通家庭父母都非常繁忙，没有时间静下心来研究全国2000多所大学，报名全靠经验，和运气，导致“高分低就”，“高分落榜”。而各所院校也是苦不堪言：院校招生有大小年，生源不稳定，甚至还有招生不满的现象，比如2012年北京航天航空大学比南京航天航空大学分数线整整低了30分。所以这个系统还并不完善。

本文致力于完善高考动态志愿填报系统，为广大考生在高考报名上节约大量的事件与金钱，解决各院校的生源不稳定，招生“大小年”的现象，通过随机抽样调查，证明各学院招生范围有规律可循，从而进一步推断，位次与分数哪个更精准，从而使用哪种数据来预测报考的学院。

为什么用c语言来处理而不是数据库：首先来说数据库的优点：数据库系统是用来管理你的数据的，建立的数理逻辑和集合操作基础上的，具有高效、可靠、完整、自同步等特性，是业务系统进行数据控制的最佳选择。再说c语言的优点：

简介紧凑，灵活方便。生成目标代码质量高，程序执行效率高。可移植性高。通过这个论文分析后发现对预测系统影响最大的就是有些年份某些院校招生计划会有很大的改变，所以程序需要及时的将当年的招生计划录入程序。所以使用c语言。数据库我不是很了解，很专业，所以我选择了c语言来做这个程序。

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