外商直接投资对我国人口流动的影响研究

论文总字数：25040字

摘 要

改革开放以来，我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就，城镇化的推进速度不断加快，其中外商直接投资（foreign direct investment）的作用不可小觑，尤其是在东部地区的都市圈的形成和发展过程中发挥了极大的作用。一直以来，正式东部地区凭借其所拥有的地理优势和政策偏向，FDI大规模地流入我国沿海地区而非内陆地区，久而久之，我国外商直接投资的区域分布呈现出明显的由东向西逐步递减的态势。然而近年来，分析相关数据可以发现，中西部吸收外资增速明显高于东部地区。可见，外商直接投资的区位选择已经逐渐向内陆转移。本文主要是基于外资区域转移的背景下研究FDI以及其他因素对人口流动的影响。在研究了FDI 和人口流动之间的相互作用原理的基础后，对我国2006年-2015年间各省利用FDI流量数额及其变化以及我国2005年、2010年以及2015年的各省的省际流动人口情况进行了分析总结。分析结果显示虽然东部地区一直都是FDI流入的的主要区域，然而相比于中西部地区，东部地区实际利用外资额在全国所占的比例却在逐渐降低，也就是说东部地区的外资增长速度是要低于中西部地区的。与之对应的是，东部地区以及东南沿海一带都是吸引流动人口的主要地区，但省际流动人口在全国所占比例却逐年下降，数据分析结果显示FDI的区域转移与人口流动的变化趋势具有一定的趋同性。因此，为了研究 FDI 以及工资水平、都市成本、政府服务和人口地理饱和度等因素对省际人口流动的影响，本文选取省际面板数据进行回归。实证结果表明，FDI 对人口流动的拉力作用显著。实证结果还显示出其它因素对人口流动有着预期的影响。根据实证结果，本文就如何平衡东中西部地区的经济发展以及加快外资向内陆转移提出了一些建议。

关键词：外商直接投资 区域转移 人口流动

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, foreign direct investment in China's rapid economic development process played a role can not be underestimated, especially in the eastern coastal areas of the rapid economic development process has played a huge role. Because the preference of foreign investment is in the eastern part of the country rather than in the central and western regions, China's foreign regional distribution show a trend of decrease from west to east. However, in recent years, the analysis of relevant data can be found in the central and western absorption of foreign investment was significantly higher than the eastern region. It can be seen that the location choice of foreign direct investment has gradually shifted to the inland. This paper is mainly based on the transfer of foreign capital in the context of the study of FDI and other factors on the impact of inter-provincial population movements. After studying the basis of the interaction between FDI and population flow, the amount of FDI flows and their changes in China from 2006 to 2015 and the inter-provincial floating population of China's provinces in 2005, 2010 and 2015 Analyzed and summarized. The results show that the eastern coastal areas have always been the main body to attract foreign investment, but the proportion of the actual use of foreign capital has declined year by year, and the eastern region and the southeast coastal areas are the main areas to attract floating population, but the inter-provincial floating population The proportion of the country has declined year by year, so it is concluded that the regional transfer of FDI and the trend of inter-provincial population movement have some convergence. Therefore, in order to study the influence of FDI and wage level, urban cost, government service and population geography on the inter-provincial population movement, this paper chooses the provincial panel data to return. The empirical results show that FDI has a significant effect on the inter-provincial population movement. The empirical results also show that other factors have an expected impact on inter-provincial population movements. Based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to balance the economic development of the eastern, central and western regions and accelerate the transfer of foreign investment to the interior.

KEY WORDS: Foreign Direct Investment, Inter-Region Transference, Population Mobility

目 录

摘要…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..Ⅰ

Abastract　………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1选题背景和研究意义 1

1.2研究内容和框架 1

1.3研究方法与可能的创新点 2

1.3.1研究方法 2

1.3.2可能的创新点 3

第二章 研究外商直接投资对人口流动的影响的文献综述 4

2.1理论研究 4

2.2实证研究 4

第三章 外商直接投资和人口流动的现状分析 7

3.1我国外资区域转移整体特征 7

3.2我国人口流动特征 8

3.3 外商直接投资的区域分布差异与人口流动变化的趋同性分析 11

3.4外商直接投资影响人口流动的机理分析 12

第四章 实证检验 13

4.1计量模型构建 13

4.2数据选取与变量说明 13

4.3回归结果分析 15

第五章 结论与政策性建议 18

5.1主要研究结论 18

5.2政策性建议 18

致 谢 20

参考文献 21

第一章 绪 论

1.1选题背景和研究意义

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