二手车价格评估计算模型研究

论文总字数：27633字

摘 要

伴随着这几年中国经济的高速发展和人民生活水平的提高，中国的汽车数量正在迅速增长。二手车市场有着巨大的发展潜力和广阔的发展前景，与此同时，国内二手车市场的竞争也越来越激烈。在此前提下，根据本文研究，国内二手车市场存在的问题主要是二手车价格评估的差异性，因为目前国内的二手车市场一部分是完全靠经验来评估二手车的价格，另一部分则是依靠专业的评估师来评估二手车价格。两种不同的价格评估手段针对同一辆二手车评估所得的价格却大不相同，所以有必要去客观、公正的得到一个二手车的价格来帮助买卖双方。

本文首先分析了重置成本法、现行市价法、收益现值法这三大基本评估方法，通过对这些方法的比较分析，总结出这三大基本评估方法都有一个共同的不足，就是计算二手车的价格有很多变量参数，比如成新率、综合调整系数、预期收益额等。其次，本文通过实地调研西安和南京的二手车市场以及浏览国内知名二手车交易网站收集来的200个二手车价格数据进行数据处理，并使用SPSS统计分析软件对收集到的数据分别进行主成分、聚类、相关性等数学统计分析。依据统计分析得出的结果，本文分析得主要影响二手车价格的几个因素分别是行驶里程、车龄、有无事故、车身外观等。然后本文采用特征价格评估模型用于二手车的价格评估，特征价格评估模型主要是研究商品自身的一些特征和价格之间关系的模型，它的理论主要来源于消费者理论和供求平衡理论。最后，通过将收集到的部分二手车价格数据分别带入特征价格评估模型以及重置成本法、现行市价法中计算在这三个不同方法下的二手车价格。通过对计算得出的数据比较分析后，重置成本法计算公式中的成新率和现行市价法计算公式里的调整系数对于每一台车都不相同且没有规范性，在计算价格上存在着主观性，特征价格评估模型相比前两种基本评估方法在计算公式上简洁很多，并且公式中的所有特征量都是给定的值，所以特征价格评估模型相比于这几种基本评估模型进步很多。

关键词：国内二手车市场；数学统计分析；SPSS;二手车价格影响因素；特征价格评估模型

Research on calculation model of used car price evaluation

Abstract

With the rapid development of China's economy and the improvement of people's living standards in recent years, the number of cars in China is growing rapidly. The second-hand car market has great development potential and broad development prospects. At the same time, the competition in the domestic second-hand car market is becoming more and more fierce. Under this premise, according to the research of this paper, the main problem in the domestic second-hand car market is the difference of second-hand car price evaluation, because at present, part of the domestic second-hand car market completely depends on experience to evaluate the price of second-hand cars, and the other part relies on professional appraisers to evaluate the price of second-hand cars. Two different means of price evaluation for the same used car, the price is very different, so it is necessary to get an objective and fair used car price to help buyers and sellers.

This paper first analyzes the replacement cost method, the current market price method and the income present value method. Through the comparative analysis of these methods, it is concluded that these three basic evaluation methods have a common deficiency, that is, there are many variable parameters to calculate the price of second-hand cars, such as the newness rate, the comprehensive adjustment coefficient, the expected income, etc. Secondly, through the field investigation of the second-hand car market in Xi'an and Nanjing, and browsing the domestic well-known second-hand car trading website, this paper collects 200 second-hand car price data for data processing, and uses SPSS statistical analysis software to conduct principal component, clustering, correlation and other mathematical statistical analysis on the collected data. According to the results of statistical analysis, this paper analyzes the main factors that affect the price of second-hand cars, which are mileage, age, accidents, body appearance and so on. Then this paper uses the hedonic price evaluation model to evaluate the price of second-hand cars. The hedonic price evaluation model mainly studies the relationship between some characteristics of the commodity itself and the price. Its theory mainly comes from the consumer theory and the theory of supply and demand balance. Finally, through the collection of part of the second-hand car price data into the hedonic price evaluation model and the replacement cost method, the current market price method to calculate the second-hand car price under these three different methods. After comparing and analyzing the calculated data, the newness rate in the calculation formula of the replacement cost method and the adjustment coefficient in the calculation formula of the current market price method are not the same for each vehicle and there is no standardization. There is subjectivity in the calculation of the price. Compared with the former two basic evaluation methods, the characteristic price evaluation model is much simpler in the calculation formula, And all the characteristic quantities in the formula are given values, so the characteristic price evaluation model is much better than these basic evaluation models.

Key words: Domestic used car market; Mathematical statistical analysis; SPSS; Second hand car price factors; Characteristic price evaluation model

目录

摘 要 Ⅰ

Abstract Ⅱ

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景与意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2国内外二手车发展研究现状 2

1.2.1国外研究现状 2

1.2.2国内研究现状 2

1.3国内二手车市场研究分析 2

1.3.1我国二手车市场存在的问题 2

1.3.2我国二手车市场发展建议 3

第二章 二手车价格三大基本评估方法比较分析 5

2.1二手车三大基本评估方法 5

2.1.1重置成本法 5

2.1.2 现行市价法 5

2.1.3 收益现值法 6

2.2三大基本评估方法的比较分析 6

第三章 二手车价格评估影响因素分析 8

3.1数据准备 8

3.2数据分析 8

3.2.1主成分分析 8

3.2.2相关性分析 11

3.2.3聚类数学分析 11

3.3二手车价格评估影响因素 12

3.3.1实体性贬值 12

3.3.2经济性贬值 12

3.3.3功能性贬值 13

第四章 基于二手车特征价格评估模型的构建 14

4.1特征价格评估模型介绍 14

4.2二手车特征价格模型 14

4.2.1二手车特征价格模型假设 14

4.2.2二手车特征价格模型的建立 14

第五章 基于二手车特征价格评估模型实例验证与比较 16

5.1模型计算值与市场值的比较 16

5.2模型计算值与基本评估值比较 17

第六章 总结 19

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