论文总字数：20058字

目 录

1 引言 1

2 资料与方法 3

2.1 研究区概况 3

2.2 数据来源 3

2.3 研究方法 4

2.3.1 泰勒图 4

2.3.2 标准化降水指数 4

2.3.3 M-K趋势检验 5

2.3.4 干旱危险性的计算 6

3 结果与分析 6

3.1 气候模式的挑选 6

3.2 不同气候变化情景下未来近期、远期降水量变化 7

3.2.1 不同气候变化情景下未来近期、远期年降水量变化趋势 7

3.2.2 不同气候变化情景下未来近期、远期年降水量空间分布变化 7

3.3 不同气候变化情景下未来近期、远期干湿变化情况 9

3.3.1 不同气候变化情景下未来近期、远期干湿变化趋势 9

3.3.2 不同时期SPI值的概率密度曲线 10

3.4 不同气候变化情景下未来近期、远期干旱危险性变化 10

4 结论与讨论 12

4.1 结论 12

4.2 讨论与不足 13

参考文献 13

致谢 16

基于NEX-GDDP数据的未来不同气候变化情景下东北地区

干旱时空演变特征分析

张芯瑜

, China

Abstract: Drought is a kind of worldwide meteorological disaster, causing serious losses to development of economy and society. Based on daily precipitation of the NEX-GDDP dataset of 11 models, the paper validates its applicability in Northeast of China, then a well-applicable model is selected to identify drought by Standardized Precipitation Index, and the temporal characteristics are analyzed with the method of MK trend-test. The paper also calculates drought risk based on Standardized Precipitation Index and analyzes spatial characteristics of drought risk in Northeast of China in the near future (2020-2049) and distant future (2070-2099) relative to the historical period (1976-2005) under different climate change scenarios. The results are as follows: the bcc-csm1-1 model has good applicability in Northeast of China. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, both in the near and distant future precipitation will increase and drought risk will decrease, and the trend will be more obvious in the distant future than in the near future. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the precipitation in the southwest of Heilongjiang will decrease while increase in other regions in the near future. The precipitation will increase in the distant future and increased range will be larger than that in the near future. The drought risk in the southwest of Heilongjiang will increase slightly while decrease in other regions in the near future. The drought risk will decrease more in the distant future than in the near future. In general, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Northeast of China will gradually become wetter and the drought risk will decrease. In the near future, there will be greater precipitation increments and less drought risk under RCP4.5 scenario than under RCP8.5 scenario. But the result in the distant future is opposite to that in the near future. The results can improve the ability to deal with climate changes and provide reference for government to make decision and development strategy.

Key words: Climate change, Northeast China, Drought, Risk

1 引言

未来全球气候变化可能呈现局部降温和整体变暖的趋势^[1]。20世纪70年代以来，气候变化增加了大气持水能力，改变着大气环流格局，使全球干旱加重^[2]。东北地区是我国干旱化趋势显著的地区之一^[3]。农业部门统计结果显示，东北地区20世纪80年代以来干旱明显加剧，干旱面积增加。东北地区是中国重要的商品粮生产基地，近年来干旱给东北地区造成的损失每年都在数十亿元以上^[4]。干旱困扰着东北地区社会、经济尤其是农业的发展。因此研究东北地区未来干旱事件的时空演变特征不仅具有学术价值，而且具有实际效益。

剩余内容已隐藏，请支付后下载全文，论文总字数：20058字