论文总字数：31956字

摘 要

随着我国经济的发展，居民收入水平不断提高，消费在国民经济中所起的作用愈发重要。提高消费在国民经济中所占比重与贡献率，优化消费、投资、出口结构，有效规避投资过热与出口导向所带来的风险，从而促进国民经济健康可持续发展成为接下来的必然选择。本次研究旨在根据我国消费现状，把握消费发展趋势，提供相应对策建议。

本文对我国消费现状及其影响因素进行了梳理，对我国消费发展趋势进行了研究。一是我国经历了四次消费升级，伴随这四次消费升级的是消费规模扩大，消费结构改善和跨境消费的出现。二是消费升级的高端化趋势。随着消费主体的年轻化，消费客体出现品质化、智能化、品牌化、个性化与定制化、绿色化趋势；主流产品则以旅游、教育、医疗、健康等服务为代表。利用改革开放以来39年的数据进行理论分析的支持，并展开了消费规模与消费结构影响因素的实证研究。

研究表明，收入水平、城镇化、社会保障、房价水平、城乡收入差距对我国消费规模影响较大；收入水平、产业结构则影响我国消费升级；而国内供给结构错位、人民币在国际市场上升值、我国税制结构不合理则影响我国消费外流；而收入水平、产业结构、互联网发展水平、科学技术的研发投入、人口年龄结构、基础设施建设将主导未来中高端消费的走向。实证结果表明，收入水平、城镇化、社会保障、房价水平促进了我国消费规模的提升，而城乡收入差距阻碍了这一过程；收入水平、产业结构会影响我国消费结构，尤其对于农村居民来说更为显著。

关键词：消费规模，消费结构，中高端消费，供给侧结构性改革

Abstract

With the development of China's economy, the income level of residents has been increasing, and consumption plays an increasingly important role in the national economy. To increase the proportion and contribution rate of consumption in the national economy, optimize consumption, investment and export structure, effectively evade the risks caused by investment overheating and export-oriented, thus promoting the healthy and sustainable development of national economy becomes the inevitable choice next.This research aims at the current situation of China's consumption, grasp the trend of consumption development, provide corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

This article has carried on the carding to our country consumption present situation and the influence factor, has carried on the research to our country consumption development tendency. First, China has experienced four consumption upgrades, along with these four consumption upgrades is the expansion of consumption, consumption structure improvement and the emergence of cross-border consumption. The second is the high-end trend of consumption upgrade. With the rejuvenation of the consuming subject, the consumer object appears to be of quality, intelligence, brand, personalization and customization, and the trend of green, the mainstream products are tourism, education, medical, health and other services as the representative.The data of 39 years since the reform and opening-up has been supported, and the empirical research on the influence factors of consumption scale and consumption structure has been carried out.

Studies have shown that income levels, urbanization, social security, house price level and urban-rural income disparity have great influence on China's consumption scale, and the income level and industrial structure affect our consumption escalation, while the dislocation of domestic supply structure, the appreciation of RMB in the international market and the unreasonable tax structure of our country affect our consumption outflow; Industrial structure, Internet development level, scientific and technological research and development investment, population age structure, infrastructure construction will dominate the future trend of high-end consumption. The empirical results show that income level, urbanization, social security and house price promote the consumption scale of our country, while the income gap between urban and rural areas hinders the process, and the income level and industrial structure will affect our consumption structure, especially for the rural residents.

KEY WORDS:Consumption scale, Consumption structure，Middle and high-end consumption,

　　　　　　Supply side structural reform

目 录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景 1

1.2研究目的和意义 3

1.3研究思路和技术路线 4

1.4文章结构安排 5

第二章 文献综述 6

2.1消费理论 6

2.2消费发展影响因素分析 8

第三章 我国消费现状及发展趋势 10

3.1 消费现状 10

3.1.1消费规模 10

3.1.2消费结构 15

3.1.3跨境消费 17

3.2消费演进阶段特征 22

3.3消费发展趋势 23

第四章 我国消费发展影响因素的实证研究 27

4.1我国消费规模影响因素的实证检验 27

4.1.1指标说明与数据来源 27

4.1.2模型与假设 27

4.1.3实证结果 28

4.2我国消费结构影响因素的实证检验 29

4.2.1指标说明与数据来源 29

4.2.2模型与假设 29

4.2.3实证结果 29

第五章 结论与对策建议 32

5.1结论 32

5.2对策建议 32

5.2.1扩大内需 32

5.2.2创新供给 33

5.3研究展望 34

致谢 35

参考文献 36

绪论

1.1研究背景

2017年发布的中共十九大报告中，多次提及消费，“中高端消费”概念也进入公众视野。报告指出“在中高端消费、创新引领、绿色低碳、共享经济、现代供应链、人力资本服务等领域培育新增长点、形成新动能”；2018年3月，李克强总理在两会期间做政府工作报告，指出要增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用。

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