江苏省大气近地层O3污染的健康危害分析

论文总字数：16832字

目 录

1 引言·······································································5

2 方法与数据处理························································· 5

2.1臭氧相关联的死亡率······················································6

2.2 人口预测·······························································6

3 结果与分析·······························································7

3.1 臭氧浓度变化特征·······················································7

3.1.1无阈值条件下分析臭氧浓度变化特征··································7

3.1.2 有阈值条件下分析臭氧浓度变化特征·································8

3.2 臭氧相关死亡数变化特征·················································9

3.2.1 无阈值条件下分析臭氧相关死亡数变化······························10

3.2.2 有阈值条件下分析臭氧相关死亡数变化······························11

3.3臭氧浓度和臭氧相关死亡数的季节变化特征·································13

3.3.1无阈值条件下臭氧浓度和臭氧相关死亡数的季节变化特征···············13

3.3.2有阈值条件下臭氧浓度和臭氧相关死亡数的季节变化特征···············14

4 结论与讨论······························································15

5 问题与展望······························································16

参考文献···································································16

致谢········································································18

江苏省大气近地层O₃污染的健康危害分析

传婷

, China

Abstract: In this study, according to the relation between the ozone concentration and mortality, the daily ozone-related mortality in the seven cities of Jiangsu province (Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou, Lianyungang, Yancheng, Zhenjiang) in 2013 are estimated using the data of O₃ concentration, population and baseline mortality rate. The seasonal variations of the ozone-related mortality are analyzed. The major results include: Firstly, when it is assumed that there is no threshold, ozone-related mortality accounts for 3 to 4 percent of total deaths. The seven cities' seasonal variations of ozone-related mortality are similar and they are the "dual-peak type" and the maximum in May and August, the minimum in June. We find that ozone-related mortality gradually increases from January to May, has slightly transformation from May to June and gradually decreases after June. Secondly, when it is assumed that there is threshold, the seasonal variations of the ozone-related mortality is similar with the trend in the condition of no threshold, and its trend also is "dual-peak type" and more distinct. But its mortality is much less than the mortality in the condition of no threshold and the mortality accounts for less than 1 percent of total deaths; On the other hand, in the seasonal variations, the ozone-related mortality in spring is similar with it in summer or has slightly increased. In addition, the ozone-related mortality is maximal in summer, followed in autumn and lowest in winter. In different seasons, the ozone-related mortality changes violently in autumn and gently in winter.

Keywords: ozone pollution, mortality, healthy hazards, Jiangsu province

1、引言

臭氧是天然大气的重要微量组分，其在大气中的含量、分布直接影响大气的辐射平衡,进而影响全球和局地气候的变化^[1]。大气层中大约90%的臭氧存在于平流层中，只有10%存在于对流层和近地层中^[2]。存在于平流层中的臭氧像一个巨大的过滤网，可以吸收和过滤掉太阳光中的大部分紫外线，有效地保护着地球上生物的生存。而存在于近地层中的臭氧浓度超过一定程度时，就是一种非常有害的污染气体，严重影响人体健康、动植物生长^[3]。近几十年，由于人类活动的影响，造成对流层、近地层臭氧增加和平流层臭氧减少的环境问题已经引起了人们的重视。

近地层臭氧是由汽车尾气、石油化工等排放的氮氧化物(NOx)和挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)，在光照、温度、湿度等气象条件下，发生光化学反应产生的^[4]。高浓度的地面臭氧将增加城市光化学烟雾的频率、加快材料老化、影响人类健康，导致农作物减产、对生态环境造成严重的危害^[5]-[6]。随着经济的发展，臭氧污染将越来越严重。因此研究近地层臭氧浓度的变化规律、产生原因以及对人群健康的影响是非常必要的。

近地层臭氧对人体健康的危害主要体现在以下几方面：（1）强烈刺激呼吸道，造成咽喉肿痛、胸闷咳嗽、引发支气管炎和肺气肿；（2）造成神经中毒，头晕头痛、视力下降、记忆力衰退；（3）对人体皮肤中的维生素 E 起到破坏作用，致使人的皮肤起皱、出现黑斑；（4）破坏人体免疫机能，诱发淋巴细胞染色体病变，加速衰老，致使胎儿畸形^[8]。臭氧对人体健康造成的伤害还因人群而异，一般认为老人与小孩对臭氧比其他人群更为敏感^[9]-[10]。国外学者通过臭氧与人体健康流行病学研究，建立了一系列臭氧体积分数变化与人群疾病和死亡率的剂量-效应方程，Rabl^[11]估算出欧洲每年单位臭氧体积分数(10^-9)所造成的人体健康危害的经济损失约合1941MECU（Million European Currency Unit）；Lina Madaniyazi得出臭氧体积分数变化与人群死亡率的剂量-效应方程。而我国在这方面的研究起步较晚，主要采用短时间序列^[12]研究探讨臭氧暴露对人群健康急性效应的影响，且研究地区局限在中国香港、珠三角地区^[13]和上海等地区。

江苏省地处中国大陆东部沿海地区中部，长江、淮河下游，是长江三角洲地区的重要组成部分，内陆面积10.72万平方千米，常住人口7998.6万人。中华人民共和国建立后，江苏经济取得长足的进步。2013年，中国综合实力百强县市中，江苏占据18席。2015年，全国经济综合竞争力研究中心发布的《中国省域经济综合竞争力发展报告（2013-2014）》蓝皮书显示，江苏省域经济综合竞争力居中国第一位^[14]。但随着经济的发展，污染问题也越来越严重，近地层臭氧浓度日益增加，给人群健康带来了危害^[15]。本文主要参考臭氧体积分数变化与人群死亡率的剂量-效应方程，计算江苏省7个市（南京、无锡、常州、苏州、连云港、盐城、镇江）臭氧相关的死亡率，总结臭氧的时空分布特征，掌握臭氧健康危害的评估方法，从而分析臭氧暴露对人群健康的影响，预测未来臭氧浓度的变化趋势，以期为国家制定臭氧质量标准提供依据以及为开展大范围地面臭氧对人体健康影响的经济评价奠定基础。

2、方法与数据处理

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